U.S. Toy Sales Are Up So Far in 2025?! Then Why Do Things Feel So Tough Right Now…?

U.S. Toy Sales Are Up So Far in 2025?! Then Why Do Things Feel So Tough Right Now…?

Do you need help to find the right mid to senior level people? We can help…we have been helping people from across the world of Toys, Games & Licensing to find new roles since 2011. Our client list reads like a ‘Who’s Who’ in the industry, think of a Toy company and we have worked with them in some way. Alogn the way we have met thousands of really talented people who could be your next hire.  Send me a DM for more information if you need help to hire new people, or check out www.ToyRecruitment.com 

Circana, the leading market data company covering the Toy industry, just reported that US Toy sales are up 6% YTD to end of April. After such a tumultuous period as our industry has had so far this year, this surely seems counter intuitive. But there are clear reasons reported by the folks at Circana for this. They highlight the strength of the Kidult segment, the impact of the Pokémon brand (especially the trading card game) and growth in higher price points i.e. $20+ retail price point.

The Toy industry at this stage is a very mature business. Growth of 6% is genuinely quite significant. There are not many years when the industry has been up by as high a percentage as that this millennium.

So, how do we explain this surprisingly positive 1st third of 2025? Well, there is no evidence of a downturn of consumer interest in Toys & Games. Consumers (including both Kids & so-called Kidults) still love our products. And 2025 comes after a few not particularly great years for the overall Toy category. My prediction for total market movement in 2025 was mid-single digit growth on the basis of more R&D investment from Toy companies after a few slow years, a much stronger movie slate and because of strong toyetic Brands with a lot of activity and momentum heading into this year.

The movie situation is worthy of discussion – after Hollywood strikes curtailed cinematic output, 2025 was the first fully back to speed year post pandemic really. And there has been a lot happening already in 2025. As of today (June 4th) YTD movie box office on very Toyetic movies is at over $2.5 billion globally. Now there are those who say that these days movies are not the force they once were in selling Toys, and there is clearly some merit in that argument. However, if you go into retail and check out the Toy aisles, or if you check out online Toy departments, there is no doubt about the prominence and therefore the sales volumes of Movie related Toys. There are a lot more movies yet to come in 2025, so that at least is a positive to look forward to and it’s good to have some positive momentum on that front.

CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON – WHY THE BACK HALF OF 2025 IS UNLIKELY TO BE AS POSITIVE AS THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEAR

The New York Times has reported significant price rises hitting Walmart shoppers:

https://nypost.com/2025/06/02/business/walmart-quietly-jacks-up-prices-despite-trumps-demand-for-retailer-to-eat-the-tariffs/ 

The article dated June 2nd 2025 highlights that:

·       Jurassic World T. Rex Toy increased from $39.92 on April 27 to $55 by May 21 — an increase of nearly 38%.

·       A “Baby Born” doll went from $34.97 in March to $49.97 in May, a c. 43% rise,

·       Lite Brite Magic Screen set up from $14.97 to $21.97 (up c. 47%).

·       Etch A Sketch motored on up from $14.97 to $24.99 — nearly a 67% increase.

Now it’s not like nobody pointed out price inflation would follow unprecedentedly high tariffs imposed on imports from China and from other countries. And yes, that’s still a transient situation subject to significant change potentially, but there can no longer be any doubt about inflation hitting Toy aisles from now on through to the end of the year. Even if tariffs were zeroed (which frankly just ain’t going to happen) it’s already too late as product has already started to be landed with tariffs added.

The bottom line is this: consumption will decrease as prices rise. That’s proven economic fact. So the full year global market performance will be adversely affected by this and the market is likely to finish 2025 down, not up in the final analysis.

I have rarely ever seen a moment like we have just lived through – where so many companies were genuinely looking down the barrel of potential business ruin. For those of you who worked through the global financial crisis, you will remember that even that gigantic financial event was not as bad as this year. Back then our retailers were under pressure, and all those around us were under pressure, and we lost some retailers around the world, but still, demand stayed fairly robust, and so those companies who went out of business tended to do so due to having poor financial reserves/credit facilities rather than literally not being able to justify manufacturing any inventory to stay in business.

A few months on, things are not quite so dark, but they are still fairly bad. I have genuinely never known so many really capable, highly experienced people looking for work as in this moment now. Of course we have felt that via our Toy, Game & Licensing Recruitment business. Companies have drawn up ultra-conservative battle plans to get through this year, and that has often included reducing head count. It’s a normal part of our industry as brands and products ebb and flow for some companies to have to reduce head count as they lose some revenues and market share to competitors, but it’s rare for so many companies to be in that same position at the same time.

There is a famous quote from a French abbot and statesman. He was asked what he did during the Terror, a deeply troubled and violent period of the French Revolution. His reply was: “J'ai vécu” or in English: “I survived”. That seems to be the philosophy of quite a few companies in the Toy business right now.

And one other point to recognise – this tariff induced crisis does not only affect Toy companies in the USA, because as the world’s biggest Toy & Game market by far, nearly every established international company has a substantial proportion of revenues coming from sales into the U.S. You can argue politically whether U.S. consumers should need to buy Toys from European, UK or Antipodean companies, but the reality is that these companies have come to rely on U.S. revenues. Moreover, if consumption shrinks, that has an effect on economies of scale affecting all other markets. My Chinese factory friends tell me that many factories in China have gone out of business recently, this will reduce choice and manufacturing capacity for all other countries which will likely lead to ongoing disruption in supply chains.

Anyway, frankly I am bored of writing and arguing about tariffs, and I’m sure you have read enough on this topic. So let’s end this on a more positive note – change is the only constant, in my 25 years in the Toy & Game industry so many things have changed. So many fundamentals we took for granted faded away – the industry’s flagship Toys R Us stores disappeared (from some markets), Woolworths closed in the UK, TV advertising was THE marketing method when I joined this industry, physical retail dominated and the only major alternative was buying through mail order from catalogues (sounds so antiquated now!) ,many long established companies went bust or sold up, and on and on the changes go. Those people and companies who embraced the change and sought opportunity when others gave up or only saw the downsides were the ones to thrive. The ongoing Artificial Intelligence revolution is likely to bring even more change, challenge and opportunity. Like all tough moments, it’s about how you manage it, and more specifically ensuring you manage it better than your competitors that counts. Hope to get back to writing about more positive things very soon.

TOY & GAME BUSINESS CONSULTANCY

In the nearly 15 years I have been Consulting for, we have advised 1000+ Toy & Game companies, set up distribution into most major markets and helped to accelerate our client’s growth across the world. For more information on how we can help, check out our services here: www.KidsBrandInsight.com/services 

GREAT PEOPLE ARE YOUR BIGGEST ADVANTAGE

Toy Recruitment Consultancy has become one our most in demand services. We have a social and own media platform (including this newsletter) which allows us to directly access c. 25k people in the world of Toys & Games from across the planet, aside from which after 25 years of grind, we know a lot of Toy & Game people across the world.

We’ve successfully recruited for roles in the UK, USA, Korea, HK, China and beyond. Our contact network is truly global…(ok we’d struggle to recruit for you in North Korea, but otherwise we’ve got you covered!).

So if you have key senior roles to fill or if you just can’t find someone qualified for a key role you need to fill, just drop me a DM and I’ll explain how we work/the costs involved or check out our Toy Recruitment website here: www.ToyRecruitment.com

Job Seekers Friday – as part of this work in helping to place good people, I’m going to try (as far as time and workload allows) to promote a new jobseeker every Friday going forward. If you are a job seeker with at least 5 years’ experience in The Toy/Game business and you want me to promote you to my audience of c. 25,000 industry people, please send me a DM & I’ll explain how it works (no cost).

Sign up to our Free Toy Industry Journal e-newsletter for the latest articles, podcasts, trends and insights into what’s going on in the Global Toy & Games business, just click here to sign up: https://forms.aweber.com/form/54/1325077854.htm 

This article is copyright 2025 RG Marketing Ltd, all rights reserved. All contributors to this article contributed under a work for hire basis on behalf of RG Marketing Ltd. Please also note, this article was written and published in the United Kingdom.