Spielwarenmesse, Nuremberg Toyfair 2025 Review And Market Outlook
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SPIELWARENMESSE 2025
This show was, I think (lost track slightly) my 25th anniversary of first attending this gigantic show. It’s a magnificent gathering of many tens of thousands of people from across the world of Toys & Games. I had an interesting conversation with some of the organising team on the last day of the show, where we discussed visitor numbers, and the ongoing subjective conversations about how much footfall there was at this and other shows. “Seems quieter or busier versus last year”. I expressed my opinion that there is no more useless metric than subjective perceptions of how busy the show is. I appreciate it might make the show FEEL better if there is a buzz of people, but the reality is that this is a hard-nosed business which is all about meeting commercial partners and selling product. According to the official figures released on the last day of the show, there were 57,500 visitors from 126 countries at this year’s Spielwarenmesse show, which broadly matches the figures from last year – proving that any subjective observations that numbers were up or down were not very well informed! If you don’t get a lot of business done with these visitor numbers, and with the visitor quality at this show (including major retailers and distributors from all major markets) then the issue is most likely with you, your company, your products or your team!
My first meeting was at 9am on the first day of the show, and my last meeting commenced 1 hour before the show closed. It seems bemusing to see so many people attend this vast show for just 2 or 3 days, if you are in the business of buying or selling Toys, where else can you spend a better 5 days? We all like to have a nice relaxing weekend at home, but surely this show merits attendance on all days? There is always next weekend to relax is there not…I had 48 pre-arranged meetings at the show, and about the same number of ad hoc meetings/discussions running around the show, plus dinners and conversations in the various Irish bars of Nuremberg after hours. To waste such a great opportunity to connect with people & to try to sell them our services or the products of my clients would not sit well with me. Only spending two or three days at this show would represent a massive missed opportunity surely? Compare the 48 pre-arranged meetings I had with the 57,500 visitors – that means I arranged to meet less than 0.1% of the visitors at the show. Even if you are a big company with lots of staff and a big exhibition booth you will not get close to maximising the potential opportunity of the show just simply due to the scale of people you could meet versus the available time you have.
GLOBAL TOY & GAME MARKET SALES TREND 2024
The best source of Toy sales data for all of my c. quarter of a century in this business has been Circana (previously called NPD). During the Spielwarenmesse show, Circana released their commentary on sales performance for the Toy market in their 12 tracked markets: https://www.circana.com/intelligence/press-releases/2025/global-toy-sales-stabilize-in-2024-collectibles-fan-favorites-and-smart-spending-shape-the-market/
Circana identified that sales across their ‘G12’ markets declined by 0.6% in 2024 versus 2023. They added that total sales in the world’s biggest Toy market, the USA were down 0.3%. This might look like a negative performance, but when you look at the comparative weakness of the movie slate in 2024, it’s actually evidence of a very resilient Toy & Game market across these major nations. With a much stronger movie slate in 2025, that alone should see a mid-single figure increase in most major Toy markets this year.
Moreover, Spielwarenmesse 2025 saw a lot of strong product development output on display. Companies have come out fighting after a tough couple of years, and so for 2025, I am fairly optimistic about the overall performance of the market. The issue of course is that total market sales show the macro perspective, but beneath the headline figures is a huge churn of companies up and down, of the meteoric risers and those who are fighting to stay in the game. Nevertheless I came away from Spielwarenmesse optimistic for 2025.
Trading conditions are challenging nevertheless. The two words I heard most at Spielwarenmesse were ’DIFFICULT’ and ‘TOUGH’. Working in a mature business full of competition as we do is never going to be a walk in the park, but opportunities abound for well managed prudent companies who chase innovation, fresh marketing and distribution channels and for those who excel at fighting the traditional game at retail.
THE BATTLEFIELD OF BRICKS
Circana’s report highlighted that the ‘Building Sets’ category grew for the 5th year in a row and topped both growth and total value versus other Toy & Game categories. Clearly this is largely driven by the excellence of Lego’s strategy and product execution, as well as the revered status of the brand in the eyes of consumers both old and young. In a market which did not grow, and in which there is relatively little totally ‘blue sky’ space, two major companies have decided to ramp up their competitive offering and to seek to compete more aggressively with Lego for market share. Mattel unveiled ‘Mattel Brick Shop’ in Nuremberg, and Jazwares unveiled ‘BLDR’, their aggressive entry into this space featuring strong licenses such as Squishmallows, Hello Kitty and others.
It's clear why big companies almost see no option but to try to muscle in on the Construction category because: a). Growth is not easy to find elsewhere b). Consumer demand is super strong in this category and c). This category has offerings across kids, tween, teen and kidults, so the consumer target is potentially very broad. Many have tried to take Lego on over the years, and yet still Lego dominates this space, let’s see – at the very least it will be fun to watch for those not involved, and offering more choice to retailers and consumers is normally a good thing.
TOY BUSINESS FORUM
Last but not least on the topic of Spielwarenmesse 2025 in Nuremberg, was the Toy Business Forum panel discussion I sat on. Thanks to the team at Spielwarenmesse and to discussion host Marlene Hösch for the opportunity to discuss opportunities in India’s domestic Toy market. You can see me below talking to the audience about why I see India as the biggest market growth opportunity in the next decade or more. The session is available on Spielwarenmesse Digital I believe, you can watch on this link here: https://digital.spielwarenmesse.de/eventdate/The-Indian-Toy-Market-Opportunities-and-Potential-for-International-Manufacturers-followed-by-a-get-together--8cdff4e5-b68a-47b5-84e0-249519381142?day=2025-02-01
SEE YOU IN NEW YORK??
I’ll be attending the New York Toy Fair. I’ll giving a presentation on Sunday morning in New York on Sourcing Trends. Here’s the details for the Toy Fair University session: https://tfny2025.mapyourshow.com/8_0/sessions/session-details.cfm?scheduleid=102
I’ll also be speaking to companies about Sourcing, our Consultancy services and also acting as an International Sales Rep for some very strong Games. Hope to see you in NYC!
FACTORIES WE REPRESENT
We represent the following factories both in and outside of China. All of these factories have the necessary certifications, have capacity, have a history of successfully supplying other Toy & Game companies:
Games factory in Vietnam – supplying cardboard, wood & plastic Games.
Games factory in India – supplying major Toy & Game companies with cardboard & plastic games.
Plastic & Electronic Toy Factory in India – major supplier, having supplied 4 out of 5 of the world’s biggest Toy Cos.
Plush factory in India - leading Plush factory with strong R&D skills.
Plastic Toy Factory in China (managed from Hong Kong) – strong track record of decades of supplying Toy companies around the world.
Board Games supplier in China – I have worked with this vendor for 20 years, they have supplied dozens of major & minor customers of mine.
If you would like more information on any of these factories or if you need help with a strategic approach to Sourcing or want to find specific factory types, please feel free to drop me a message.
BOARD GAME SALES REPRESENTATION
We are representing a number of strong selling Games for international markets with established consumer demand in one or more markets. If you’re seeking proven Games to sell in your market/s please feel free to get in touch to arrange a meeting at one of the upcoming shows!
TOY & GAME BUSINESS CONSULTANCY
In the nearly 15 years I have been Consulting for, we have advised hundreds of companies, set up distribution into most major markets and helped to accelerate our client’s growth. For more information on how we can help, check out our services here: www.KidsBrandInsight.com/services
Sign up to our Free Toy Industry Journal e-newsletter for the latest articles, podcasts, trends and insights into what’s going on in the Global Toy & Games business, just click here to sign up: https://forms.aweber.com/form/54/1325077854.htm