Why Increased Toy Sales In Q2 & Q3 Won’t Result In Less Toy Sales In Q4
Toy sales have been up year on year throughout most of 2020, despite the most disruptive global emergency of several generations effectively locking down billions of people around the world and at least temporarily shutting down key retailers.
One of the repeated speculations has been whether increased toy sales in the earlier part of the year will reduce toy sales in the critical Q4 peak selling season. The clear and obvious answer to that question is no way!
The reason why we can be so equivocal about this is that toys and games are effectively throwaway purchases for consumers in this day and age. Even for those families sadly affected by losing their jobs or suffering poor health due to the pandemic, repeated history suggests that children around the Western world will still wake up on Christmas day (and other celebrated days) to find a bumper crop of new toys waiting for them.
We have conducted endless focus groups with children and parents on the subject of toys and games. For some of these studies we had the parents show us how many toys their children had, and in every instance, the answer was measured in the hundreds! Over time as price points for classic toy items have stayed static, they have been devalued by inflation to the point that a $9.99 or even $19.99 purchase is considered throwaway to most of the population of developed countries.
Therefore, the idea that because the child had a few extra toys in April or May they would be left short for Christmas is frankly laughable.
Consumer demand is likely to be stronger not weaker in this Q4 based on our calculations because history again suggests that even in really tough times, parents don’t skimp on treating their kids in the festive season. Moreover, it is possible that this need to give children a great Christmas or Thanksgiving or Three Kings Day will be amplified in the toughest year humankind has faced on a global basis since the end of World War 2.
There may be challenges finding shops open or online retailers with courier capacity on the other hand, but any lost sales this Q4 are very unlikely to result from a dip in consumer demand.
We run a Consultancy business for toy companies. We work with major toy companies through to start ups and one person bands. For more information on how we help toy companies grow their distribution around the world: www.KidsBrandInsight.com/services
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